Afrin, which is dating back to 1000s BC to the Hittites, and containing important historical remains, entered the dominion of Muslims very early in 637 when Jerusalem was conquered. Afrin was a small town and connected to Kilis during the Ottoman period.

PYD, which took control of Afrin, which Assad left to them in 2012, declared canton in January 2014. Afrin, which is administratively linked to Aleppo, is adjacent to Turkiye's Hatay from the west and Kilis from the north. The South is opened to Idlib province, which is ruled by opposition groups. In the southeast, there are Zahra and Nubul areas where the Shia population is dominated.

Afrin is a city where demography changes with the crisis. According to the 2004 census, the population was 172 thousand. Afrin center population was 36 thousand. According to a calculation in 2016 in the city where the PKK declared autonomy in 2012, a total of 316 thousand people, including Arabs, Turkmen, and Kurds, escaped from other war zones, took refuge in this region. The total population is estimated to be over 500 thousand. The district itself has not faced any conflict so far. The economy is based on agriculture; there are no discovered oil/gas reserves.

In the economic sense, Afrin became an income source and an important political base of PYD in olive, olive oil, flour, and sugar. For example, in the election in 1990, PKK supporters sent 6 deputies to the Syrian Parliament.

Due to the destruction in Aleppo, 50 percent of the city's industry has moved to Afrin in terms of being a "safe" area for now.

Why is Afrin important?  

Looking at the map Afrin has a geographical position that extends like a battering ram into Turkiye. If the Afrin clears from PYD, the area about 10 thousand square kilometers in the southern border of Turkiye will be under control of Turkiye. With the Operation 'Euphrates Shield' that will be carried to Afrin after Idlib, will completely block the target of PKK to reach the Eastern Mediterranean zone.

Afrin is important due to its location lays in the northwest of the opposition stronghold of Idlib and Aleppo, and staying between FSA-controlled Azez and border with Turkiye. The PYD needs to take control of FSA-controlled Azez in order to spread its target combining Afrin with Kobane in the corridor along the border of Turkiye.  The probability of this generation reaching toward the Mediterranean is seen as another threat for Turkiye. Afrin is an important center for PYD that opens to Hatay Amanus Mountains, for leaking militants, weapons, and ammunition to feed the PKK in Turkiye. There are heavy weapons such as anti-tank weapons, rockets and heavy machine guns, and ammunition rounds among the leaks from Afrin to Amanus. Because of the geographical elevation of Afrin, the important part of the center of Kilis and Hatay remains in the fire zone. Afrin is important for Turkiye because Turkiye does not want the city, which is located at the opposite of Hatay and Kilis to be in a hand of YPG, the extension of PKK. For the YPG, this is the door to the Mediterranean. The US also wants the groups under its control to be reached to the Mediterranean.

Why Turkiye needs the operational?

In Afrin, which has been in under the control of the PYD since the early days of civil war in Syria, PYD has shown its actual effectiveness since 2015. The Menagh (Minnak-Minniag-Minig) Airport, the most important strategic point of the region, was controlled by the PYD on February 11, 2016. In its recent attacks, YPG occupied nearly 300 villages and towns.

Afrin is one of the three cantons along with Kobane and Jazeera declared by the PYD but has no territorial integrity with them.

In terms of Turkiye, the US-YPG cooperation is forming a new threat. Turkiye sees as a critical step that the YPG take controls of regions taken from the DAESH and gets stronger. In an environment where the threats from DAESH have been reduced to Turkiye, Turkiye thinks another arising power YPG as more long-term and strategic threat. For this reason, Turkiye sees Afrin a critical target to block a territory that will be controlled by the PKK in the north of Syria.

What is the stage of Afrin operation?

Until now, as in the Operation 'Euphrates Shield', a comprehensive operation with land elements has not yet begun but the military operations are accelerating. In particular, Artillery Unions have intensified the south and southwest regions of Afrin. In addition, shelling and military shipments to the north of Afrin continue at a rapid pace.

Dialogue with Russia

Russia is most critical countries about Turkiye's possible intervention in Afrin now. It is unrealistic to expect that Russia would leave the PYD completely alone because of Moscow's rivalry with the US in the region, although it is interpreted as Russia's withdrawal of some of its forces in Afrin. Both Russia, which builds Syrian policy on the west of the Euphrates, and the US, which dominates east of the Euphrates, are closely involved with YPG.

As well as deepening their relationship recently with Turkiye, despite NATO warning, Russia came to the last point of the sale of the S-400 defense system, which is not expected to close eye on the sensitivity of Ankara. On the other hand, Russia and Turkiye have agreed for the establishment of de-escalation zone in Idlib region. Also for opening the way to Idlib, some certain regions of Afrin are important. In line with all these headlines, there is intense contact traffic with Russia on military and diplomatic grounds for Afrin.

Military shipment started long ago

Turkiye, which is voicing a long time its uncomfortable of PKK / PYD in Afrin with the presence of the international community, was continuing military preparations for a while. Especially the military shipment since June has brought question within itself that "When the Afrin Operation will start?"

The military component inventory shipped to regions by Turkiye gives important ideas about possible Afrin operation.

Since summer, the Turkish Army has carried out numerous shipments of T-155 Storm Howitzer, M-114 Armored Personnel Carriers, M-60 and Leopard tanks, tank rescue equipment and ammunition for its presence in Idlib as well as against the PYD elements stationed in Afrin.

Some of the weapons the US gave to YPG are in Afrin

The total number of YPG militants in Afrin is 12 thousand. There is also a select group of soldiers called "Elite Force" from the U.S. army in Afrin, but the number does not exceed 100. The Russians also have 70 soldiers deployed for training in the south.

In addition, 6 thousand infantry heavy machine guns, 3 thousand 500 DSHK called wheeled heavy machine guns, 100 anti-tank rocket, a different diameter of 250 mortar system, 300 night-vision and target marker binoculars were among the arms aid of the U.S. gave to YPG.

Also, it is known that YPG has Javelin in its laser-guided anti-tank system, but the number is not certain. The US Army has also donated 2,000 armored personnel carriers to YPG.

The next review of overlooked or ignored in a very important issue as MANPADS (Man-portable air-defense systems) is an issue. MANPADS is a generic term for short-range, land-to-air defense systems that can be fired by a single crew. As it can be remembered that in February 2017, the US carried out "JAVELIN" shipments to the PKK / PYD, and they instructed them how to use this weapon system.

These weapons are in great danger for the Afrin operation, which is said to be carried out by artillery and air elements than land elements.

Why is Afrin's eastern region important?

There is a strategic area in the eastern part of Afrin, north-west of Tal Rifaat, where the PKK / PYD elements give priority to establishing defense lines.

In early February 2016, the PKK / PYD captured the "Menagh ( Minnak-Minniag-Minig ) Military Airport" located in the north-west of Tal Rifaat, and in return, the Turkish Army artillery units took that region under heavy fire. Former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu made the following statements: "YPG should go away from Azez and its environs immediately. It should not even come near Azez. It will not be an effort to break to corridor again. It will not use the Minnak the airport against Turkiye or against the opposition; it should immediately evacuate the airport."

What is the US after?

This issue has to be considered and evaluated more thoroughly. Washington is not stupid, no matter how ambitious it is. Although Turkiye's reactions against to be girded are known to the desired of forming a corridor flanked out to the PKK-PYD, it is impossible that Washington has not accounted the consequences of his attempt to form a unity affiliated to itself. It is unthinkable for the Pentagon to skip it, even as Russia is paying attention. It is clear why Turkiye goes fire with fuel into such a kind of provocation; Turkiye is forced to go to war. If that happens, there is not much that America will lose. Because in Syria, it uses YPG as a force. Eventually, Turkiye will enter Afrin, but that it is also a cost. Washington will try to squeeze Turkiye in economic and political fields in the international arena by using the PYD / PKK.

How long will the possible operation take?

It might be predicted that the first dimension of military action will not last long. But probably the main actors Turkiye and YPG will enter in a long-term conflict that Russia, the United States, Iran, and Syria be part of close observers and occasional cracks will also be involved in sometimes. It can be said that the conflicts will not cover all Afrin in the short period, but will cover the strategic locations in the east and north of Tal Rifaat. However, this process should not be considered only in terms of conflict. It is probably entering into a long and multidimensional conflict process as it was in the Operation 'Euphrates Shield'. This conflict period could have political and military consequences in Tal Rifaat, Idlib and Afrin respectively. This will lead the regional dimensions developments to get in front of the military dimensions.

ILKHA