Idlib is a city located on the north-west of Syria and 60 km from Aleppo. Because the region that it is located in the neighboring territory of the province of Hatay, it shows similarities both geographically and sociologically, especially with the southern ones such as Hatay and Kilis. The city's economy is based on agriculture. Idlib, one of the major agricultural centers, is an important production center for olives, cotton, wheat and especially cherries.

Idlib is one of the regions where the greatest wave of violence was experienced in the Syrian civil war. Attacks began after regime lost its control over Idlib and Russia was involved in the civil war in October 2015. With the refuge of the civilians fleeing Syria's inner regions, Idlib has become a squeezed area for millions of people. According to local civil administration records, Idlib has about 2,400,000 indigenous populations and 1.3 million displaced people.

Idlib is interpreted as a "critical castle" for Syria

Idlib is also very close to Syria's gateway to the Mediterranean and Lattakia, which is under the control of the Syrian regime. Idlib is interpreted as a "critical fortress" for Syria because of its accessibility to the major city centers such as Lattakia, Aleppo and Hama, the possibility of exit to the Mediterranean and the geographical proximity to the Latakia city.

There is no region other than Idlib controls by the Syrian opposition in the civil war that has been going on since 2011. Therefore, the Syrian regime is in preparation in recent days for operations against Idlib. The Syrian regime is strengthened by a military buildup near Idlib. The opponents are digging tunnels, ditches, and trenches and trying to take a defensive position against possible attack. Idlib, and the defenders forming a defensive line surrounding the Gab Lake of Hama in the south, send numerous reinforcements, dig ditches and tunnels in the area.

The Syrian regime, Russia, and Turkiye strengthen military presence in the region

The Syrian regime, while preparing Idlib operations, Russia and Turkiye strengthening the military presence in the region. The Russian Izvestiya newspaper announced that Russia deployed at least 10 warships and 2 submarines to the east of the Mediterranean. This military mobility has been the most comprehensive naval reinforcement ever since 2015 when Russia was involved in the Syrian war. Most of the Russian warships are equipped with long-range Kalibr missiles.

The Turkish Armed Forces also reported on Wednesday that two military convoys sent to strengthen Hama and Idlib's observation points reached the region on Wednesday. Turkiye has completed 12 observation points in Idlib in May. With the Syrian regime's preparations for the operation to Idlib has accelerated Turkish Armed Forces to reinforce observation towers with tanks and ball stacks. Idlib falls for Turkiye means 'gains' as Afrin, Azez, and Jarabulus will be jeopardized.

National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar issues a statement on Idlib on Thursday related to the operations on Idlib. Indicating that 12 observation points were opened in Idlib by Turkish Armed Forces within the scope of the Astana process, Akar said, "We are striving to ensure the safety of 3.5-4 million people without deteriorating the ceasefire system established here, to carry out humanitarian relief efforts and to stop these attacks. Turkiye, in consultation with the states concerned, will endeavor to take measures to prevent these attacks."

Civilian started to evacuate Idlib and its surrounding centers

While all these developments were taking place, the civilians began to evacuate Idlib and its surrounding centers. Evictions carried out in the area by buses while people migrating to the rural area, the migration of Syrian resistance has reached to the border with Turkiye. The EU is also worried about this because it will bring about a possible catastrophic refugee flood. Because they do not want a wave of migration like 2015 to happen again.

7 September, Turkiye, Russia and Iran's leaders will meet in Tabriz

It is being warned that direct attacks on Idlib will be a disaster and that it will harm the Astana process. In this respect, three guarantor countries, leaders of Turkiye, Iran, and Russia will meet at the summit in Tabriz on September 7 for final consultations for the resolution of Idlib process. Turkiye has 12 observation points while Russia has 10, and Iran has 7 under the agreement they have reached in Astana process. Defense Ministry and intelligence units between Russia and Turkiye are currently working with active coordination channels.

ILKHA